Emma J. Cole

Invasive sandburs (Cenchrus spp.), tropical and subtropical plants, are preferred in grasslands and agricultural ecosystems worldwide, causing significant crop production losses and reducing native biodiversity. Integrating phylogenetic relatedness and potentially suitable habitats (PSHs) to identify areas at risk of invasion is critical for prioritizing management efforts and supporting decisions on early warning and surveillance for sandbur invasions. However, despite risk assessments for individual Cenchrus species, the combined analysis of suitable habitats and phylogenetic relationships remains unclear. Therefore, this study aims to assess the invasion risk regions—including PSHs, species richness (SR), and phylogenetic structure—of eight invasive and potentially invasive sandburs in China, to quantify their niche overlap and identify driving factors. Our results showed that the phylogenetic distance of potentially invasive sandburs was closely related to invasive sandburs. Especially, three potentially invasive sandburs, C. ciliaris, C. setigerus, and C. myosuroides, possessed invasion potential resulting from close phylogenetic relatedness and high climatic suitability compared with invasive sandburs. The PSHs for invasive sandburs were distributed in wider regions except northwest China and had higher suitability to different environmental conditions. Potentially invasive sandburs were primarily located in southwestern and southern China driven by precipitation, especially, being inspected in Guangdong, Hainan, and Yunnan on numerous occasions, or potentially introduced in Guangxi, Taiwan, and Fujian for sandburs invasion hotspots. The phylogenetic clustering for eight sandburs occurred in the eastern, center, and southern coastal China, where higher SR in distribution was correlated with invasion hotspots. The SR and phylogenetic relatedness metrics were related to temperature and topographic variables. Totally, the expansion and invasion risk could be increased toward higher latitudes under future global warming. These findings offer novel insights for the prevention and management of sandburs invasions.

Many species-at-risk reach the edge of their range as disjunct and isolated populations. These peripheral populations may harbour unique genetic diversity crucial for future range shifts, or they may lack genetic diversity due to isolation or small population size. As such it is important to assess the genetic diversity and differentiation of these populations. We used 1,838 SNPs to evaluate the differentiation and genetic diversity in six Canadian (peripheral) and eight US (core) populations of wood-poppy ( Stylophorum diphyllum ), a perennial wildflower that is endangered at the northern limit of its range. We also compared these 14 populations to seeds from two commercial seed providers to determine if commercial sources are introgressing into wild populations. We found strong differentiation between core and peripheral populations, low levels of gene flow among both core and peripheral populations, and low to moderate levels of genetic diversity across the range with a decrease in heterozygosity in peripheral populations. We also noted that the commercial populations were genetically distinct from all natural sampled populations, with no evidence of introgression between commercial seeds and either Canadian or US populations. Our study indicates that peripheral and core populations form unique conservation units and therefore the conservation and recovery of the wood-poppy in Canada is necessary to conserve the full range of genetic diversity within the species.

The pawpaw (Asimina triloba [L.] Dunal) is a deciduous tree notable for its large edible fruit. Native to the eastern US and Canada, it has earned attention as a horticultural commodity and focus of scientific inquiry. However, few studies have modeled its potential future distribution under climate change. This study predicted the current and future potential distribution for pawpaw in North America and globally, with a focus on understanding future climatic suitability for fruit cultivation. This study first modeled suitability via the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) method by relating climate predictors with different datasets on pawpaw distribution, including nursery locations growing pawpaw. It also trained a boosted regression tree (BRT) model to estimate where sufficient heat accumulation for fruit ripening would occur. The models were applied to two future times (2041–2060 and 2081–2100), four emissions scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585), and climate projections from three climate models. Using nursery locations, the MaxEnt model yielded a mean area-under-the-curve statistic of 0.978 (standard deviation = 0.009) using 10-fold cross-validation, indicating strong predictive performance. The model suggested optimal conditions for pawpaw at these values: -4 °C for minimum temperature of coldest month, 26 °C for maximum temperature of warmest month, 88 cm for annual precipitation, and 0 % for precipitation seasonality. Models suggested shifting suitable climate conditions and accompanying increases in heat accumulation for fruit ripening. Northern America, Eastern Europe, and Northern Europe were predicted to have higher and increasing suitability; Western Europe, Southern Europe, and Eastern Asia were predicted to have higher but decreasing suitability. Little uncertainty existed due to collinearity shift or dissimilarity between current and future climate, but more uncertainty existed when predictions were based on differing climate model projections. This study provides insight into the pawpaw's potential response to climate change, and guidance on future locations for cultivation.

AbstractPremiseTo survive climate change and habitat loss, plants must rely on phenotypic changes in response to the environment, local adaptation, or migration. Understanding the drivers of intraspecific variation is critical to anticipate how plant species will respond to climate change and to inform conservation decisions. Here we explored the extent of local adaptation and phenotypic plasticity in Heteromeles arbutifolia, toyon, a species endemic to the California Floristic Province.MethodsWe collected leaves from 286 individuals across toyon's range and used seeds from 37 individuals to establish experimental gardens in the northern and southern parts of toyon's range. We measured leaf functional traits of the wild‐collected leaves and functional and fitness traits of the offspring grown in the experimental gardens. We then investigated the relationships between traits and source environment.ResultsMost traits we investigated responded plastically to the environment, and some traits in young seedlings were influenced by maternal effects. We found strong evidence that variation in leaf margins is a result of local adaptation to variation in temperature and temperature range. However, the source environment was not related to fitness traits or survival in the experimental gardens.ConclusionsOur findings reiterate the adaptive role of toothed leaf margins in colder and more seasonally variable environments. Additionally, we provide evidence that fitness of toyon is not dependent on where they are sourced, and thus toyon can be sourced across its range for restoration purposes.

Abstract  Background and aims Crop wild relatives, exposed to strong natural selection, exhibit effective tolerance traits against stresses. While an aggressive root proliferation phenotype has long been considered advantageous for a range of stresses, it appears to be counterproductive under drought due to its high metabolic cost. Recently, a parsimonious root phenotype, metabolically more efficient, has been suggested to be better adapted to semiarid environments, although it is not clear that this phenotype is a trait exhibited by crop wild relatives. Methods Firstly, we analysed the root phenotype and carbon metabolism in four Medicago crop wild relatives adapted to a semiarid environment and compared them with the cultivated M. truncatula Jemalong (A17). Secondly, we exposed the cultivated (probably the least adapted genotype to aridity) and the wild (the most common one in arid zones) M. truncatula genotypes to water deficit. The carbon metabolism response in different parts of their roots was analysed. Results A reduced carbon investment per unit of root length was a common trait in the four wild genotypes, indicative of an evolution towards a parsimonious root phenotype. During the water deficit experiment, the wild M. truncatula showed higher tolerance to drought, along with a superior ability of its taproot to partition sucrose and enhanced capacity of its fibrous roots to maintain sugar homeostasis. Conclusion A parsimonious root phenotype and the spatial specialization of root carbon metabolism represent two important drought tolerance traits. This work provides relevant findings to understand the response of Medicago species roots to water deficit.

Abstract After many decades of effective control of stem rust caused by the Puccinia graminis f.sp. tritici, (hereafter Pgt) the reported emergence of race TTKSK/Ug99 of Pgt in Uganda reignited concerns about epidemics worldwide because ∼90% of world wheat cultivars had no resistance to the new race. Since it was initially detected in Uganda in 1998, Ug99 variants have now been identified in thirteen countries in Africa and the Middle East. Stem rust has been a major problem in the past, and concern is increasing about the risk of return to Central and East Asia. Whilst control programs in North America and Europe relied on the use of resistant cultivars in combination with eradication of barberry (Berberis spp.), the alternate host required for the stem rust pathogen to complete its full lifecycle, the focus in East Asia was principally on the use of resistant wheat cultivars. Here, we investigate potential airborne transmission pathways for stem rust outbreaks in the Middle East to reach East Asia using an integrated modelling framework combining estimates of fungal spore deposition from an atmospheric dispersion model, environmental suitability for spore germination, and crop calendar information. We consider the role of mountain ranges in restricting transmission pathways, and we incorporate a representation of a generic barberry species into the lifecycle. We find viable transmission pathways to East Asia from the Middle East to the north via Central Asia and to the south via South Asia and that an initial infection in the Middle East could persist in East Asia for up to three years due to the presence of the alternate host. Our results indicate the need for further assessment of barberry species distributions in East Asia and appropriate methods for targeted surveillance and mitigation strategies should stem rust incidence increase in the Middle East region.

Non‐native annual grasses can dramatically alter fire frequency and reduce forage quality and biodiversity in the ecosystems they invade. Effective management techniques are needed to reduce these undesirable invasive species and maintain ecosystem services. Well‐timed management strategies, such as grazing, that are applied when invasive grasses are active prior to native plants can control invasive species spread and reduce their impact; however, anticipating the timing of key phenological stages that are susceptible to management over vast landscapes is difficult, as the phenology of these species can vary greatly over time and space. To address this challenge, we created range‐wide phenology forecasts for two problematic invasive annual grasses: cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum), and red brome (Bromus rubens). We tested a suite of 18 mechanistic phenology models using observations from monitoring experiments, volunteer science, herbarium records, timelapse camera imagery, and downscaled gridded climate data to identify the models that best predicted the dates of flowering and senescence of the two invasive grass species. We found that the timing of flowering and senescence of cheatgrass and red brome were best predicted by photothermal time models that had been adjusted for topography using gridded continuous heat‐insolation load index values. Phenology forecasts based on these models can help managers make decisions about when to schedule management actions such as grazing to reduce undesirable invasive grasses and promote forage production, quality, and biodiversity in grasslands; to predict the timing of greatest fire risk after annual grasses dry out; and to select remote sensing imagery to accurately map invasive grasses across topographic and latitudinal gradients. These phenology models also have the potential to be operationalized for within‐season or within‐year decision support.

The first record of Xenoglossa (Cemolobus) ipomoeae (Robertson, 1891) (Apidae: Eucerini) for the state of Mississippi, USA is reported. This species is a rarely encountered specialist bee that is known to forage on Ipomoea pandurata (L.) G.F.W. Mey (Convolvulaceae), potentially along with other closely related plants in the genus Ipomoea. A single female was collected in Bolivar County during 2017 that a represents a significant southwestern range expansion for this bee species.

Plant species with small habitat ranges and specific edaphic requirements are highly vulnerable to extinction and thus require enhanced attention in biodiversity conservation. This study was designed to explore the challenges of protecting such plant species by evaluating the in situ and ex situ conservation capacities available for Thailand's species of the mega‐diverse plant genus Begonia L. A comprehensive assessment of occurrence records across the country was conducted to evaluate the spatial distribution of Begonia diversity in Thailand, identify biodiversity hotspots, assess the extinction threats faced by the 60 Begonia species known in the country, and identify existing conservation capacities and potential gaps. The results show that 78% of Begonia species in Thailand are vulnerable to extinction, with the Northern floristic region identified as both a Begonia species hotspot and a region with major conservation gaps. While in situ conservation efforts have been successful in covering over 88% of the species, they have failed to provide the protection required to achieve zero extinction. Ex situ conservation capacities are poorly developed, with only 13% of species present in botanical gardens, and no seed banking or other related activities have been initiated. This evaluation presents a sharply contrasting message: on one hand, Thailand has assembled substantial capacities to protect these plants through established national parks and other protected areas, but on the other hand, essential capacities are still lacking to render the zero extinction target achievable. We advocate for the implementation of a multi‐component conservation strategy to enable Thailand to move towards zero species extinction, even for plant species with narrow habitat ranges and high edaphic specialisation.

Premise Cleomaceae is an important model clade for studies of evolutionary processes including genome evolution, floral form diversification, and photosynthetic pathway evolution. Diversification and divergence patterns in Cleomaceae remain tangled as research has been restricted by its worldwide distribution, limited genetic sampling and species coverage, and a lack of definitive fossil calibration points.MethodsWe used target sequence capture and the Angiosperms353 probe set to perform a phylogenetic study of Cleomaceae. We estimated divergence times and biogeographic analyses to explore the origin and diversification of the family. Seed morphology across extant taxa was documented with multifocal image‐stacking techniques and morphological characters were extracted, analyzed, and compared to fossil records.ResultsWe recovered a well‐supported and resolved phylogenetic tree of Cleomaceae generic relationships that includes 236 (~86%) species. We identified 11 principal clades and confidently placed Cleomella as sister to the rest of the family. Our analyses suggested that Cleomaceae and Brassicaceae diverged ~56 mya, and Cleomaceae began to diversify ~53 mya in the Palearctic and Africa. Multiple transatlantic disjunct distributions were identified. Seeds were imaged from 218 (~80%) species in the family and compared to all known fossil species.ConclusionsOur results represent the most comprehensive phylogenetic study of Cleomaceae to date. We identified transatlantic disjunctions and proposed explanations for these patterns, most likely either long‐distance dispersals or contractions in latitudinal distributions caused by climate change over geological timescales. We found that seed morphology varied considerably but mostly mirrored generic relationships.