Carl Georg Schillings

Globally, vector‐borne diseases are increasing in distribution and frequency, affecting humans, domestic animals, and wildlife. Science‐based management and prevention of these diseases requires a sound understanding of the distribution and environmental requirements of the vectors and hosts involved in disease transmission. Integrated Species Distribution Models (ISDM) account for diverse data types through hierarchical modeling and represent a significant advancement in species distribution modeling. We assessed the distribution of the soft tick subspecies Ornithodoros turicata americanus. This tick species is a potential vector of African swine fever virus (ASFV), a pathogen responsible for an ongoing global epizootic that threatens agroindustry worldwide. Given the novelty of this method, we compared the results to a conventional Maxent SDM and validated the results through data partitioning. Our input for the model consisted of systematically collected detection data from 591 sampled field sites and 12 historical species records, as well as four variables describing climatic and soil characteristics. We found that a combination of climatic variables describing seasonality and temperature extremes, along with the amount of sand in the soil, determined the predicted intensity of occurrence of this tick species. When projected in geographic space, this distribution model predicted 62% of Florida as suitable habitat for this tick species. The ISDM presented a higher TSS and AUC than the Maxent conventional model, while sensitivity was similar between both models. Our case example shows the utility of ISDMs in disease ecology studies and highlights the broad range of geographic suitability for this important disease vector. These results provide important foundational information to inform future risk assessment work for tick‐borne relapsing fever surveillance and potential ASF introduction and maintenance in the United States.

Background The recent discovery of emerging relapsing fever group Borrelia (RFGB) species, such as Borrelia miyamotoi, poses a growing threat to public health. However, the global distribution and associated risk burden of these species remain uncertain. We aimed to map the diversity, distribution, and potential infection risk of RFGB.MethodsWe searched PubMed, Web of Science, GenBank, CNKI, and eLibrary from Jan 1, 1874, to Dec 31, 2022, for published articles without language restriction to extract distribution data for RFGB detection in vectors, animals, and humans, and clinical information about human patients. Only articles documenting RFGB infection events were included in this study, and data for RFGB detection in vectors, animals, or humans were composed into a dataset. We used three machine learning algorithms (boosted regression trees, random forest, and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator logistic regression) to assess the environmental, ecoclimatic, biological, and socioeconomic factors associated with the occurrence of four major RFGB species: Borrelia miyamotoi, Borrelia lonestari, Borrelia crocidurae, and Borrelia hermsii; and mapped their worldwide risk level.FindingsWe retrieved 13 959 unique studies, among which 697 met the selection criteria and were used for data extraction. 29 RFGB species have been recorded worldwide, of which 27 have been identified from 63 tick species, 12 from 61 wild animals, and ten from domestic animals. 16 RFGB species caused human infection, with a cumulative count of 26 583 cases reported from Jan 1, 1874, to Dec 31, 2022. Borrelia recurrentis (17 084 cases) and Borrelia persica (2045 cases) accounted for the highest proportion of human infection. B miyamotoi showed the widest distribution among all RFGB, with a predicted environmentally suitable area of 6·92 million km2, followed by B lonestari (1·69 million km2), B crocidurae (1·67 million km2), and B hermsii (1·48 million km2). The habitat suitability index of vector ticks and climatic factors, such as the annual mean temperature, have the most significant effect among all predictive models for the geographical distribution of the four major RFGB species.InterpretationThe predicted high-risk regions are considerably larger than in previous reports. Identification, surveillance, and diagnosis of RFGB infections should be prioritised in high-risk areas, especially within low-income regions.FundingNational Key Research and Development Program of China.

BackgroundCrimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is a widespread tick-borne viral infection, present across Africa and Eurasia, which might pose a cryptic public health problem in Uganda. We aimed to understand the magnitude and distribution of CCHF risk in humans, livestock and ticks across Uganda by synthesising epidemiological (cross-sectional) and ecological (modelling) studies.MethodsWe conducted a cross-sectional study at three urban abattoirs receiving cattle from across Uganda. We sampled humans (n = 478), livestock (n = 419) and ticks (n = 1065) and used commercially-available kits to detect human and livestock CCHF virus (CCHFV) antibodies and antigen in tick pools. We developed boosted regression tree models to evaluate the correlates and geographical distribution of expected tick and wildlife hosts, and of human CCHF exposures, drawing on continent-wide data.FindingsThe cross-sectional study found CCHFV IgG/IgM seroprevalence in humans of 10·3% (7·8–13·3), with antibody detection positively associated with reported history of tick bite (age-adjusted odds ratio = 2·09 (1·09–3·98)). Cattle had a seroprevalence of 69·7% (65·1–73·4). Only one Hyalomma tick (CCHFV-negative) was found. However, CCHFV antigen was detected in Rhipicephalus (5·9% of 304 pools) and Amblyomma (2·9% of 34 pools) species. Modelling predicted high human CCHF risk across much of Uganda, low environmental suitability for Hyalomma, and high suitability for Rhipicephalus and Amblyomma.InterpretationOur epidemiological and ecological studies provide complementary evidence that CCHF exposure risk is widespread across Uganda. We challenge the idea that Hyalomma ticks are consistently the principal reservoir and vector for CCHFV, and postulate that Rhipicephalus might be important for CCHFV transmission in Uganda, due to high frequency of infected ticks and predicted environmental suitability.FundingUCL Global Challenges Research Fund (GCRF) and Pan-African Network on Emerging and Re-Emerging Infections (PANDORA-ID-NET) funded by the European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership (EDCTP) under the EU Horizon 2020 Framework Programme for Research and Innovation.

Although vanilla is one of the most popular flavours in the world, there is still uncertainty concerning the native distribution of the species that produces it, Vanilla planifolia. To circumscribe the native geographical extent of this economically important species more precisely, we propose a new…

In multiple regression Y ~ β0 + β1X1 + β2X2 + β3X1 X2 + ɛ., the interaction term is quantified as the product of X1 and X2. We developed fractional-power interaction regression (FPIR), using βX1M X2N as the interaction term. The rationale of FPIR is that the slopes of Y-X1 regression along the X2 gr…