Gwilym Lewis

Global warming is one of the biggest threats to global biodiversity causing not only changes in the patterns of precipitation and temperature but also disturbing ecological interactions. The aim of our study was to forecast the effect of climate change on the distribution of food‐deceptive orchid species whose pollination strategy relies on a strict association with pollinators and co‐occurring rewarding Faboideae plants. We used the ecological niche modeling approach to evaluate future overlap of the suitable niches of studied orchid species with the predicted distribution of their ecological partners. Models were made based on two different global circulation models (FIO, CNRM). CNRM projections predict expansion of orchids' geographical range. In contrast, FIO prediction is less optimistic, forecasting species range contraction. The studied Faboideae species showed different responses to predicted global warming with no consistent patterns in how their suitable niches might change. Most climate change projections and scenarios of the future modifications of temperature and precipitation patterns do not predict significant loss of suitable niches of Trichocolletes bees (Colletidae) pollinating Diuris species. However, global warming has the potential to disrupt interactions between the studied orchids and their co‐occurring pea plants by altering the overlap of their geographical ranges which can further disturb pollination success. CNRM projections predict an overall loss of Faboideae within the potential geographical range of Diuris brumalis. Conversely, FIO projections suggest a less extensive predicted divergence. Our simulations offer suggestions for conservation strategies of orchids and potentially for other species that have a similar pollination strategy. The areas indicated here as suitable in the future for the occurrence of all ecological partners can be important climate refugia to consider in local conservation plans. The approach used in our study can serve as a model for understanding the potential effects of climate change on the strength of the pollination system via food deception.

Climate change is the main cause of global biodiversity loss and changes in the structure of ecological communities. Species distribution models are an efficient tool for predicting suitable areas for species and their vulnerability to climate change. In this study, we evaluated the impact of precipitation and temperature (factors of climate change) on 12 species of the Cyperaceae family, classified into three groups: aquatic, amphibian, and terrestrial. Our results provide a comprehensive overview of habitat projections for aquatic, amphibian and terrestrial Cyperaceae species in the Amazon biome under current and future scenarios. We highlight significant range losses projected for species such as Scleria amazonica and Cyperus lacustris in the future. The relationship between climate and its influence on species distribution is critical, emphasizing the urgent need to conserve biodiversity in the face of climate change. In the models, protected areas were essential refuges for species under threat, highlighting their crucial role in preventing biodiversity loss. Variables such as temperature and seasonality (rainfall variability) strongly influenced the distribution patterns of Cyperaceae species. Seasonal fluctuations such as extreme droughts can influence water availability and the growth dynamics of hydrophytic plants. Amphibian species adapt to temperature fluctuations and changes in precipitation, while terrestrial plants prefer warmer and rainy regions. Our results emphasize the importance of conservation strategies for Amazonian species. We have also shown that protected areas play an essential role in conserving biodiversity and protecting Cyperaceae species from future changes.

Abstract The Neotropics have been host to a myriad of geological and climatic events that have shaped the biodiversity present in the region. Bromeliaceae forms one of the most prominent components of the Neotropical flora, being considered the largest group nearly exclusive to the Americas, with almost 4000 species divided into eight subfamilies. Here, we utilize a new time-calibrated molecular phylogeny including 1268 bromeliad taxa and integrate habitat and morphological data to answer the following questions: (i) Are bromeliad subfamilies monophyletic, and did Neogene and Quaternary events in South America coincide with their divergence? (ii) Did naked seeds of berry-fruited species, epiphytic growth, and climatic factors increase bromeliad diversification? Our analysis reconstructed a new topology concerning some recently diverged lineages, with the genus Bromelia emerging as the sister group of a clade including all remaining Bromelioideae lineages + Puyoideae. Miocene events possibly triggered the diversification of bromeliads after a long period of stasis during the Palaeogene. We hypothesize that the morphological shift between Bromelia and Bromelioideae (except Bromelia) is related to the colonization of a new high-elevation environment by Puyoideae in the Andes. Additionally, our results show that naked seeds and the epiphytic growth form positively influence diversification rate, while precipitation, temperature, and elevation have a negative influence. We emphasize the importance of considering a variety of morphological and ecological features to enhance our understanding of bromeliad evolution.

The campos rupestres and the Brazilian Atlantic Forest Inselbergs (BAFI) are highly diverse vegetation types that grow on mountaintops of eastern Brazil and show outstanding levels of endemism. The plant family Velloziaceae is an iconic element of these vegetations, with the genus Vellozia, being exceptionally abundant in both these vegetations. In this study, we use Vellozia as a model to address three main questions: (i) What was the distribution of Vellozia’s most recent common ancestor? (ii) Did the range expansions of Vellozia occur during periods characterized by global cooling? (iii) When did Vellozia colonize the different South American highlands they occupy nowadays? To address these questions, we reconstructed the phylogeny of Vellozia using sequences of four molecular markers analysed using Bayesian and maximum likelihood inferences. We used the resulting phylogeny to reconstruct the ancestral distribution of Vellozia using the DEC model. Our findings indicate that Vellozia originated and subsequently diversified in the Oligocene, when the genus was broadly distributed through the Andes, BAFI, Cerrado, Caatinga, and the Chapada Diamantina, suggesting that the Cerrado may acted as a corridor between the Andes and eastern mountaintop vegetations. Vellozia subsequently occupied the southern Espinhaço during the Early Miocene, which was followed by increased diversification rates and several range expansions, especially after the Middle-Miocene Climatic Optimum, when cooler and drier periods allowed the expansion of open environments and the retraction of forests, allowing Vellozia to expand their distribution. These results highlight the unique evolutionary history of Vellozia and the importance of climatic cooling for the expansion of the genus.

Abstract After many decades of effective control of stem rust caused by the Puccinia graminis f.sp. tritici, (hereafter Pgt) the reported emergence of race TTKSK/Ug99 of Pgt in Uganda reignited concerns about epidemics worldwide because ∼90% of world wheat cultivars had no resistance to the new race. Since it was initially detected in Uganda in 1998, Ug99 variants have now been identified in thirteen countries in Africa and the Middle East. Stem rust has been a major problem in the past, and concern is increasing about the risk of return to Central and East Asia. Whilst control programs in North America and Europe relied on the use of resistant cultivars in combination with eradication of barberry (Berberis spp.), the alternate host required for the stem rust pathogen to complete its full lifecycle, the focus in East Asia was principally on the use of resistant wheat cultivars. Here, we investigate potential airborne transmission pathways for stem rust outbreaks in the Middle East to reach East Asia using an integrated modelling framework combining estimates of fungal spore deposition from an atmospheric dispersion model, environmental suitability for spore germination, and crop calendar information. We consider the role of mountain ranges in restricting transmission pathways, and we incorporate a representation of a generic barberry species into the lifecycle. We find viable transmission pathways to East Asia from the Middle East to the north via Central Asia and to the south via South Asia and that an initial infection in the Middle East could persist in East Asia for up to three years due to the presence of the alternate host. Our results indicate the need for further assessment of barberry species distributions in East Asia and appropriate methods for targeted surveillance and mitigation strategies should stem rust incidence increase in the Middle East region.

Premise Cleomaceae is an important model clade for studies of evolutionary processes including genome evolution, floral form diversification, and photosynthetic pathway evolution. Diversification and divergence patterns in Cleomaceae remain tangled as research has been restricted by its worldwide distribution, limited genetic sampling and species coverage, and a lack of definitive fossil calibration points.MethodsWe used target sequence capture and the Angiosperms353 probe set to perform a phylogenetic study of Cleomaceae. We estimated divergence times and biogeographic analyses to explore the origin and diversification of the family. Seed morphology across extant taxa was documented with multifocal image‐stacking techniques and morphological characters were extracted, analyzed, and compared to fossil records.ResultsWe recovered a well‐supported and resolved phylogenetic tree of Cleomaceae generic relationships that includes 236 (~86%) species. We identified 11 principal clades and confidently placed Cleomella as sister to the rest of the family. Our analyses suggested that Cleomaceae and Brassicaceae diverged ~56 mya, and Cleomaceae began to diversify ~53 mya in the Palearctic and Africa. Multiple transatlantic disjunct distributions were identified. Seeds were imaged from 218 (~80%) species in the family and compared to all known fossil species.ConclusionsOur results represent the most comprehensive phylogenetic study of Cleomaceae to date. We identified transatlantic disjunctions and proposed explanations for these patterns, most likely either long‐distance dispersals or contractions in latitudinal distributions caused by climate change over geological timescales. We found that seed morphology varied considerably but mostly mirrored generic relationships.

It would be advantageous to grow legume forage crops in order to increase the productivity and sustainability of sloped croplands in Hamkyongbukdo. In particular, the identification of potential cultivation areas for alfalfa in the given region could aid decision-making on policies and management related to forage crop production in the future. This study aimed to analyze the climate suitability of alfalfa in Hamkyongbukdo under current and future climate conditions using the Fuzzy Union model. The climate suitability predicted by the Fuzzy Union model was compared with the actual alfalfa cultivation area in the northern United States. Climate data obtained from 11 global climate models were used as input data for calculation of climate suitability in the study region to examine the uncertainty of projections under future climate conditions. The area where the climate suitability index was greater than a threshold value (22.6) explained about 44% of the variation in actual alfalfa cultivation areas by state in the northern United States. The climatic suitability of alfalfa was projected to decrease in most areas of Hamkyongbukdo under future climate scenarios. The climatic suitability in Onseong and Gyeongwon County was analyzed to be over 88 in the current climate conditions. However, it was projected to decrease by about 66% in the given areas by the 2090s. Our study illustrated that the impact of climate change on suitable cultivation areas was highly variable when different climate data were used as inputs to the Fuzzy Union model. Still, the ensemble of the climate suitability projections for alfalfa was projected to decrease considerably due to summer depression in Hamkyongbukdo. It would be advantageous to predict suitable cultivation areas by adding soil conditions or to predict the climate suitability of other leguminous crops such as hairy vetch, which merits further studies.

Background and Aims: Parasitic plants represent approximately 1% of the world’s angiosperm diversity. The highest richness of parasitic plant species among angiosperms belongs to Orobanchaceae, the only family with three main nutritional stages: autotrophic, hemiparasitic, and holoparasitic. Hemiparasitic genera are the most diverse, unstudied, and sometimes neglected within Orobanchaceae. Pedicularideae, the largest tribe of hemiparasitic taxa in Orobanchaceae, contains several poorly known genera. One of these is Lamourouxia, a genus of 30 species distributed throughout the Americas, but mostly endemic to Mexico. Due to the lack of knowledge about the biogeographic patterns, ende-mism, and conservation status of Lamourouxia species, the objectives of this study were to estimate their species richness and endemism, determine the areas of endemismin the Americas, and assess their conservation status.Methods: Applying a taxonomic revision of physical and digitized herbaria specimens, citizen science observations, and scientific open access databases, we conducted biogeo-graphic analyses for the whole genus. Moreover, the conservation status of all Lamourouxia species was assessed following the IUCN Red List guidelines.Key results: The highest species richness, highest weighted endemism, and corrected weighted endemism values occurred in southern Mexico. Three areas of endemicity were distributed throughout western Mexico. Four species were classified as Endangered (EN), and three as Critically Endangered (CR) according to the IUCN risk categories. Endemic and rarely recorded Lamourouxia species were mostly distributed in unprotected areas in the Sierra Madre del Sur, Mexico.Conclusions: The Mexican Transition Zone is the center of diversification of Lamourouxia, and one third of the genus is endemic to this region. It is strongly encouraged to carry out actions to conserve threatened species of Lamourouxia, which are distributed in the Sierra Madre del Sur, the biogeographic province with the highest number of endemic species in Mexico.

Given the high number of non-native plants that are being introduced worldwide and the time required to process formal pest risk analyses, a framework for the prioritization of management actions is urgently required. We therefore propose a framework for a replicable and standardized prioritization for management actions (eradication, control and monitoring) of invasive non-native plants, combining expert knowledge, current and future climatic suitability estimated by species distribution models (SDMs), clustering and ordination techniques. Based on expert consultation and using Italy as case study, invasive non-native plant species were selected and three categories of management actions were identified: eradication, control and containment, and monitoring. Finally, two further classes of priorities were proposed for each of the management actions: “high” and “low” priority. Overall, SDMs highlighted a high and very high suitability for Continental and Mediterranean bioregions for most invasive plants. Cluster analysis revealed three distinct clusters with varying levels of suitability for the Italian bioregions. Cluster 1 exhibited a higher suitability across all Italian bioregions, whereas non-native plants grouped in Cluster 2 predominantly featured high suitability in Mediterranean areas. Finally, Cluster 3 showed the lowest suitability values. Two ordination analysis highlighted the variability in bioclimatic suitability for each non-native plant within each cluster, as well as their current distribution pattern. Lastly, a third ordination, integrating bioclimatic suitability and spatial patterns, has allowed the differentiation of management actions for each non-native plant at both national and bioregional scales. Specifically, seven non-native plants were earmarked for eradication action, six for monitoring action, while the remaining species were deemed suitable for control and containment. Our results and the methodology proposed meet the demand for replicable new early warning tools; that is to predict the location of new outbreaks, to establish priorities for eradication, control and containment, and to monitor invasive non-native species.

AbstractAbstract. neighboring countries. Recently, an increase in biological surveys and access to natural preserves has led to a better understanding of species distributions in Nicaragua and across Central America. Here, we provide new departmental records for three species of didelphid, 18 chiropterans (Phyllostomidae, Molossidae, Vespertilionidae), one geomyid, and one mustelid from 21 sites across the country. This work underscores the need for additional sampling across Nicaragua to fill gaps in the known distribution of many species. This information can facilitate or inform conservation actions in established and proposed preserves in Nicaragua.